Ukraine Deep Strikes in Russia Shift War Dynamics

Since summer 2025, Ukraine has significantly intensified long-range strikes inside Russian territory, marking a pivotal shift in the war’s geography and strategy. These Ukrainian operations, combining indigenously built drones and missiles, are now targeting oil refineries, fuel depots and logistics hubs far from the frontlines — pressuring Moscow’s defensive posture and fuel infrastructure. 

Thousands of kilometres inside Russia, drone columns lift silently at night from rural launch sites, heading east into areas once considered safe-zones. Analysts estimate up to 38 per cent of Russia’s nominal refining capacity has been impacted, causing fuel shortages and forcing Moscow to shunt defences across a wider area.

The escalation comes just as the European Union ramps up its military and financial assistance to Ukraine and boosts sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. The EU’s changing stance reflects the widening impact of the conflict across borders and the growing urgency to bolster Kyiv’s self-sufficiency in long-range strike systems. 

For Moscow, the deep strikes reveal a new vulnerability: territory once assumed safe is no longer secure. For Kyiv, they represent a strategy of attrition — targeting infrastructure to weaken Russia’s war effort step by step. As winter approaches and fuel stocks become vital, the outcome of this shift may influence the conflict’s trajectory in the months ahead.

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