IMF Raises MENA Growth Forecast for 2025-26

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, signaling stronger-than-expected resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties. The region’s GDP is now projected to expand by 3.2% in 2025, rising from 2.1% in 2024, with growth accelerating further to 3.7% in 2026. This positive momentum is largely driven by increased oil production as OPEC+ eases output cuts, alongside robust domestic demand and steady implementation of structural reforms.

Key Gulf economies like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are benefiting not only from oil market gains but also from successful diversification strategies focusing on non-oil sectors such as trade, logistics, and financial services. Dubai remains a regional hub for service sector growth, supported by increasing trade volumes.

Among oil importers, countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco are experiencing recovery fueled by strong remittance inflows, growing tourism, and improved agricultural output. Inflation pressures are easing across most economies due to tighter monetary policies and falling food and energy prices.

Despite the optimistic outlook, the IMF warns of risks from geopolitical tensions, potential financial market tightening, and vulnerabilities linked to sovereign debt in some countries. Policymakers are encouraged to use this window of opportunity to rebuild fiscal buffers, accelerate reforms, and promote inclusive growth with a focus on youth, women, digital transformation, and education.

Conflict-affected areas remain fragile but show cautious recovery thanks to international aid and stabilization efforts. Overall, the MENA region’s economic resilience in 2025 sets a hopeful tone for sustained growth and stability in the coming years.