Global trade $35 trillion 2025 milestone marks a historic first as international commerce exceeds this threshold for the first time, driven by volume growth rather than price inflation, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Trade expanded 2.5% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with goods up nearly 2% and services rising 4%, reflecting stable demand as global inflation cools.
Regional and sectoral highlights
East Asia led export growth at 9% over the past year, fueled by 10% intra-regional trade expansion, with China and South Korea performing strongly. Africa saw imports rise 10% and exports 6%, while South-South trade among developing economies grew 8%. Strong services export performers included India and China. Projections show continued Q4 growth at 0.5% for goods and 2% for services, adding $1.5 trillion to goods and $750 billion to services totals for a 7% annual increase.
Manufacturing trade surged 10%, led by electronics up 14% due to AI demand, while agriculture saw sharp Q3 gains with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports each rising 11%. Contrasting declines included automotive trade down 4% and fossil fuels amid lower prices. 2025 trade consistently outpaced global economic growth, reversing 2023-2024 stagnation, though friendshoring and nearshoring trends reshaped patterns. UNCTAD forecasts weaker 2026 growth due to slower activity, rising debt, higher costs, and uncertainty.
UAE’s strong non-oil trade performance
While UNCTAD data did not detail Middle East performance, UAE government reports show robust non-oil foreign trade reaching Dh1.7 trillion in H1 2025—nearly double five years prior—with double-digit non-oil exports and re-exports despite global headwinds. The UAE climbed to fourth worldwide in merchandise exports per capita, underscoring its role in high-value trade and re-exports via hubs like Jebel Ali Port and Abu Dhabi’s logistics ecosystem.
This volume-led recovery signals healthy economic activity, though persistent imbalances and shifting trade alliances present ongoing challenges for 2026 planning.
Gulf Repost delivers clear, actionable insights into global trade trends, economic analysis, and UAE business performance. From UNCTAD reports and manufacturing surges to regional export growth and logistics developments, we connect international data to local opportunities for UAE businesses, investors, and policymakers navigating the evolving world economy.
